NOAA Forecasts Significant Chance of Ultra-Powerful Super El Niño This Year

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that there is a very significant chance that a Super El Niño will occur later this year, raising the probabilities for severe weather events in certain areas.

El Niño and La Niña are two of the most prominent weather patterns on the planet, usually alternating every few years to create a constant shift in temperatures and climate. Both phenomenons take place in the east-central Pacific, typically occurring between island nations like Tuvalu in Oceania and the western coast of South America.

La Niña signifies cooler-than-average temperatures, resulting in a global cooling effect that brings more snow to the northern United States while leaving the southern US dry and warm. La Niña also results in drier weather across Eastern Asia and brings warmth to South America but cools the Earth as a whole.

Meanwhile, El Niño signifies that the region is warmer than usual, leading to much warmer temperatures globally. El Niño enhances the subtropical jet stream, bringing wetter and cooler temperatures to the southern United States, while South America receives much more rainfall than average. However, it also causes drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Africa.

This year, the world is set to experience a Super El Niño, which would exacerbate the conditions caused by El Niño. Typical El Niño phenomena result in a warming of approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius of the equatorial Pacific, but NOAA forecasts that this year's event could warm the region up to 3 °C more than usual.

This Super El Niño will bode well for the southern United States, which will see a weakened hurricane season due to high wind shear, along with wetter and cooler temperatures. However, the globe as a whole is likely to experience extreme droughts and heavier-than-usual rains during this period, with the western United States being one of the most vulnerable areas for drought. Monsoon seasons across southern Asia will be much stronger than usual, resulting in increased flooding and damage.

Scientists predict that the Super El Niño, coupled with ongoing climate change, could make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.

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Image credit to The Weather Network